Computational Modelling for Law Enforcement Intelligence Analysis

The complexity of criminal behaviour generates growing demand for methods that enable intelligence analyst trainees and professionals to make sense of the criminal system under study. Computational modelling appears to offer methods for investigation of criminal behaviour and assessment of intervention strategies that would otherwise require long, expensive, and often ineffective analysis. In this paper, we explore the potential of computational models in the field of intelligence analysis. On the one hand, the discussion involves possibilities, challenges, and risks of applying computational modelling in the law enforcement domain, on the other hand the possible impact on law enforcement agencies strategic positioning, internal processes and the specific work environment. We propose a methodological approach that is based on modelling the interaction of criminal network dynamics, the civil society in the law enforcement area, and intervention strategic analysis embodied in a virtual analyst agent.